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Métodos estadísticos para medir la efectividad de políticas arancelarias, tributarias y aduaneras: estudio de caso Perú
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The core of the book lies in overcoming the bias inherent in macroeconomic aggregates by employing customs-level microeconometrics. Historically, trade policy evaluations in Peru have suffered from two systematic flaws: the use of average prices—distorted by the high volatility of individual transaction records—and an inability to disentangle the impact of tax and customs policy from international commodity price cycles. The introduction of a filter based on the Coefficient of Variation (CV < 0.5) to refine data at the 10-digit NANDINA classification level represents a significant methodological advancement. By purging the dataset of outlier unit values—stemming from either fraudulent undervaluation or data-entry errors—the study demonstrates that it is possible to construct substantially more reliable volume (quantum) and price indices. From an econometric modeling perspective, the application of Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) and Difference-in-Differences (DiD) provides a robust solution to the challenge of establishing a counterfactual.
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DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22255340Editions