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50th Anniversary of the Metaphorical Butterfly Effect since Lorenz (1972): Multistability, Multiscale Predictability, and Sensitivity in Numerical Models
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This year marks the 50th anniversary of the metaphorical butterfly effect, born from Edward Lorenz's 1963 work on initial condition sensitivity. In 1972, it became a metaphor for illustrating how minor changes could yield an organized system. •Lorenz Models: Chaos and Regime Changes: Explore Lorenz models' 1960–2008 evolution, chaos theory, and coexisting attractors. •Unraveling High-dimensional Instability: Challenge norms in "Butterfly Effect without Chaos?" as non-chaotic elements contribute uniquely. •Modeling Atmospheric Dynamics: Delve into atmospheric dynamics via "Storm Sensitivity Study." •Navigating Data Assimilation: Explore data assimilation's dance in chaotic and nonchaotic settings via the observability Gramian. •Chaos, Instability, Sensitivities: Explore chaos, instability, and sensitivities with Lorenz’s 1963 and 1969 models. •Unraveling Tropical Mysteries: Investigate tropical atmospheric instability, uncovering oscillation origins and cloud–radiation interactions. •Chaos and Order: Enter atmospheric regimes, exploring attractor coexistence and predictability. •The Art of Prediction: Peer into predictability realms, tracing the "butterfly effect's" impact on predictions. •Navigating Typhoons: Journey through typhoons, exploring rainfall and typhoon trajectory prediction. •Analyzing Sea Surface Temperature: Examine sea surface temperature analysis and nonlinear analysis for classification.
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Keywords
- Bernoulli function
- butterfly effect
- categorical statistics
- Chaos
- chaotic regimes
- cloud dynamics
- cloud resolving model
- cloud-resolving model
- convective available potential energy (CAPE)
- Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy (CFL) criterion
- Data assimilation
- dual nature
- dynamics system
- Earth sciences
- El Niño
- EOF
- finite predictability
- forecast sensitivity
- forward–backward scheme
- generalized Lorenz model
- ill-conditioned
- instability
- ISOMAP
- La Niña
- Laplace’s demon
- leapfrog scheme
- Lorenz model
- low-order modeling
- Meteorology & climatology
- MM5
- multistability
- Niño 3.4
- Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
- observation placement
- oscillations
- PCA
- Philippines
- predictability
- predictions
- Purdue regional climate model (PRCM)
- quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF)
- radiation
- Rayleigh–Bènard convection
- Reference, information & interdisciplinary subjects
- Research & information: general
- saddle point
- SDIC
- sensitive dependence on initial conditions
- sensitivities
- shallow water equations (SWE)
- SST
- thema EDItEUR::G Reference, Information and Interdisciplinary subjects::GP Research and information: general
- time-lagged ensemble
- tropical clouds
- typhoon
- ventilation effect
- weather forecasts
- Zika toy model
Links
DOI: 10.3390/books978-3-0365-8911-4Editions